Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23, 2023, to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defence, an effort that is unlikely to succeed, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its assessment that day.
A genuine rebellion
ISW assessed that Prigozhin likely intended to truly conduct an armed rebellion against the Defence Ministry, rather than expecting Kremlin support to force changes in its leadership or merely escalating his rhetoric.
Prigozhin shared a video, reportedly showing the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear Wagner camp, and accused the Defence Ministry of carrying it out. ISW could not verify the video. He accused Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner, claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel were ready to act, and urged Russians not to resist. He later called his actions a “march for justice” and denied it was a coup.
Kremlin response
Security was reportedly stepped up in Moscow, and the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the National Anti-Terrorism Committee opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for calling for an armed rebellion. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had been informed. ISW assessed that the Kremlin was very likely unaware of Prigozhin’s plans and opposed them.
Rostov-on-Don
ISW said Prigozhin most likely intended to target the Defence Ministry leadership in Rostov-on-Don, home to the Southern Military District headquarters, and possibly Moscow. Prigozhin claimed Wagner forces had crossed into Rostov Oblast without resistance.
Army General Sergei Surovikin, who has close ties to Wagner, publicly urged Wagner fighters not to follow Prigozhin’s orders, which ISW called a major blow to his hopes of winning support from the military. ISW assessed that Putin is highly unlikely to accept an effort to topple the Defence Ministry’s leadership.
Sources
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