Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provide more ammunition, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its assessment of April 29, 2023.

“Withdraw or stay and die”

Prigozhin said Wagner would continue fighting in Bakhmut but might have to “withdraw in an organized manner or stay and die” if the situation did not improve soon, according to ISW.

He complained that Wagner was receiving only a small fraction of the artillery shells it was requesting each day.

Calls to go on the defensive

Prigozhin again urged the Kremlin to go on the defensive in eastern Ukraine. He warned that a Ukrainian counteroffensive could begin before May 15 and said the Russian military was not preparing quickly enough.

ISW said the threat to withdraw could also reflect Prigozhin’s concern that Russian positions in Bakhmut’s rear were vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks.

Aligning with Surovikin

Prigozhin claimed that Wagner and Army General Sergei Surovikin had devised the plan that wore down Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut. ISW assessed that he was trying to align himself with Surovikin as Putin’s favour appeared to shift away from the network of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and to regain access to ammunition amid a reshuffle of Russia’s military leadership.

Prigozhin has repeatedly accused the Defence Ministry of starving Wagner of ammunition during the months-long battle for Bakhmut.

Sources

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