Russia’s Ministry of Defence is recruiting convicts to fight in Ukraine, indicating that the Kremlin, like the Wagner Group, intends to use prisoners in future attacks despite their limited combat effectiveness, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its assessment of February 14, 2023.
Convicts in Soledar
ISW cited CNN reporting that the Defence Ministry directly recruited prisoners who were deployed to Soledar in Donetsk Oblast in October 2022, placing them in formations of the 2nd Army Corps of the Russian-controlled “Luhansk People’s Republic.” Convicts told CNN they suffered heavy casualties after being ordered to storm Ukrainian positions.
“Cannon fodder reserve”
ISW assessed that the Kremlin likely intends to use convicts in human-wave attacks similar to Wagner’s tactics. Andriy Yusov, a representative of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov were creating a convict “cannon fodder reserve.”
Sidelining Wagner
The Defence Ministry’s move into prisoner recruitment may have fuelled Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin’s public attacks on Russian commanders, ISW said. It assessed that the Kremlin is distancing itself from Wagner and likely depriving Prigozhin of the ability to recruit and train convicts.
Bakhmut
ISW also assessed that Ukraine’s defence of Bakhmut is likely strategically sound, having degraded significant Russian forces, including much of the Wagner Group.
Sources
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