The threat of a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus is low, the head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (HUR), Kyrylo Budanov, said in an interview with The New York Times published on December 23, 2022.
A feint
Budanov said Russia was trying to persuade Ukraine to divert soldiers from the combat zone in the south and east with a flurry of military activity to the north in Belarus. “These are elements of disinformation campaigns,” he said.
He described troop “carousels,” with trains moving soldiers towards the border and back, which create the impression of larger movements, Kyiv Post reported.
No assault formation
Budanov said Russian troops in Belarus were not arranged in an assault formation and that mobilised soldiers training there lacked serviceable equipment for offensive operations and were slated for the Donbas. He acknowledged that long-term risks remained but said current intelligence showed no immediate threat.
Context
Russian forces used Belarusian territory to launch their failed assault on Kyiv in February 2022. Russia has since deployed thousands of troops to Belarus for training, and President Vladimir Putin visited Minsk on December 19, fuelling speculation in Ukraine about a new offensive from the north. Ukraine has kept significant forces along its northern border as a precaution.
Sources
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