EU agricultural production continues to be affected by the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, surging energy prices, increasing input costs and food inflation, but the sector remains stable and “food availability is not at risk in the EU,” the European Commission said in its autumn short-term outlook published on October 5, 2022.
Drought and war
The summer of 2022 was one of the hottest on record, hurting maize, soybean and sunflower crops. Total EU cereal production is forecast at 270.9 million tonnes, down 7.8% year on year, with maize down 23.7% mainly because of drought. EU cereal exports are expected to rise 6.5% to 51 million tonnes.
Ukrainian grain
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, signed in July, restored Ukrainian grain exports by sea and helped lower wheat and oilseed prices, although its renewal remains uncertain, the Commission said. The EU’s Solidarity Lanes have moved more than 12 million tonnes of Ukrainian cereals and oilseeds since May.
Fertiliser concerns
The Commission warned that fertiliser supply is a concern for 2023, as high gas prices can force producers to cut ammonia and nitrogen output. Milk collection is expected to fall 0.5%, while pigmeat production is forecast to drop 5%.
Sources
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