Europe’s intelligence services do not expect the war in Ukraine to end this year, according to a Reuters report published on February 19, 2026.
“Negotiation theatre”
The heads of five European intelligence agencies, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they were pessimistic that US-brokered talks would produce a deal in 2026. Four said Moscow was using the negotiations to pursue sanctions relief and business deals with the United States. One described the talks in Geneva as “negotiation theatre.”
Russia’s aims unchanged
One chief said Russia was not seeking a peace agreement and that its strategic goals had not changed, including removing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and turning Ukraine into a “neutral” buffer against the West.
Moscow wants Ukraine to withdraw from the remaining 20% of Donetsk region it controls, which Kyiv refuses to do. Even taking all of Donetsk would not achieve Russia’s aim of toppling Zelenskyy’s government, one official said.
Russia’s economy
The intelligence chiefs said Russia was not on the verge of collapse and was a “resilient society,” though one warned of “very high” financial risks in the second half of 2026, citing sanctions, limited access to capital markets and high borrowing costs. Russia’s economy grew by about 1% last year, with the central bank rate at 15.5%.
Sources
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