Ukraine reported July as a month of significant Russian military losses and strategic territorial gains. Ukrainian forces reclaimed 745 square kilometers, while drone strikes disrupted Russian logistics. The UN noted July 2026 as the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians.
Russia is preparing for a new mobilization wave post-State Duma elections, aiming to enlist 300,000 to 500,000 recruits. This move reflects the failure of Russia’s contract-based recruitment model to offset battlefield losses. Ukraine’s intelligence confirms these preparations.
Intercepted communications suggest Russian troops in Ukraine face severe shortages of food and water, with reports of malnutrition, exhaustion, and collapsing morale. Ukrainian intelligence highlights systemic logistical failures and growing psychological strain among frontline forces.
Top executives at Russia’s biggest lenders are privately mapping how to seek state recapitalization if bad loans keep climbing. Official NPLs look manageable and buffers are large, but restructurings mask risk. 2017-style bailouts could return.
Europe’s human rights court delivered a landmark judgment on July 9, 2025, holding Russia responsible for the downing of MH17 and systemic abuses in occupied Ukrainian territories since 2014, from killings and torture to child deportations, despite Moscow’s noncooperation.
A report citing InformNapalm warns Russia’s FSB may stage terrorist incidents during regional 9 May parades, leaving sites like Khabarovsk and Ulan-Ude under-secured to create a spectacle blaming Ukraine, spur mobilization, and derail peace efforts. Amid heavy propaganda.
UK Defence Intelligence’s 3 May update estimates Russia has suffered about 950,000 casualties since 2022, including roughly 160,000 in the first four months of 2025. At current rates, this year could be the deadliest yet—despite minimal territorial gains for Moscow.
After failing on the battlefield, Moscow shifted to cognitive war—seeding viral lies, funding U.S. influencers, and exploiting diaspora and EU networks—to stall aid and bend debate. The result: low-cost fakes reaching high offices and eroding support for Ukraine.
French priest Patrick Desbois, famed for documenting Holocaust mass graves, now records Russian-run torture in occupied Ukraine. His team concludes the FSB’s system aims to erase Ukrainian identity—meeting Genocide Convention criteria—and has filed evidence with EU courts
Facing massive armor losses, Russia is fielding 1950s-era GAZ-69 trucks—some with crude anti-drone cages—as assault transports. The move signals accelerating de-mechanization: civilian vehicles now fill combat roles, revealing shortages and rising battlefield risk.
After two Moscow meetings, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff told Tucker Carlson he found Putin “honest” and suggested Kyiv may need to relinquish occupied regions and NATO ambitions. Analysts blasted his remarks as recycling Kremlin narratives and misstatements about Kursk.
Putin has given a vague response to US Trump’s ceasefire proposal, expressing support in principle while adding demands that ensure a deadlock. Officials in Kyiv hope his hesitation will reinforce their argument that the Kremlin has no interest in ending the war.
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