Russia is preparing for a substantial increase in manpower recruitment throughout the coming year as it struggles to compensate for heavy battlefield losses in its war against Ukraine. According to information released by Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, Moscow intends to draw at least 126,000 new soldiers from what it calls the “special contingent,” a category that includes Russian citizens currently serving prison sentences, individuals under investigation, and people burdened with unpaid loans or other financial and legal troubles. This group has increasingly become a primary source of new recruits as traditional mobilization efforts face widespread resistance across Russian society.

The intelligence report states that the Kremlin plans to enlist around 10,000 people from this special contingent every month. These recruits are expected to fill the gaps left by the continuous and mounting losses within Russian military units deployed in Ukraine. Despite consistent attempts to rotate and regenerate its forces, Russia has been unable to stabilize its troop numbers, pushing the government to rely more heavily on vulnerable, coerced, or legally pressured individuals.

In total, Russia aims to mobilize at least 280,000 new soldiers in 2025—the minimum number deemed necessary to replace casualties and maintain operational capability. This figure underscores the scale of Russia’s difficulties on the battlefield and the intensity of ongoing combat. The growing dependence on prisoners and other marginalized groups also reflects the Kremlin’s declining ability to secure voluntary enlistment or implement large-scale mobilization without risking public unrest.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to inflict significant losses on Russian forces. Reports from Ukrainian military intelligence indicate that, within the last week alone, Ukrainian operatives destroyed sixteen Russian engineering and fortification structures and disabled five electronic warfare systems. These operations highlight Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to degrade Russian capabilities and complicate Moscow’s attempts to rebuild its fighting strength. As the war continues, Russia’s increasingly desperate mobilization strategies demonstrate both the strain on its military resources and the uncertain trajectory of its long-term war aims.

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