Russia’s initial peace proposals to Ukraine shortly after the invasion began in February 2022. Titled “Agreement on the Settlement of the Situation in Ukraine and Ukraine’s Neutrality,” the treaty presents terms that would effectively reduce Ukraine to a puppet state with minimal sovereignty.
1. Neutral Status and Military Restrictions**: The treaty aimed to make Ukraine a neutral state, prohibiting NATO membership and significantly reducing its military to only 50,000 personnel, which would leave it defenseless compared to Belarus.
2. Recognition of Separatist Areas: Ukraine would need to recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics, legitimizing Russian territorial claims over these regions.
3. Weaponry Control: Ukraine would be restricted from developing missile technology exceeding 250 kilometers in range, diminishing its ability to defend itself.
4. Economic and Humanitarian Conditions: The pact demanded lifting sanctions on Russia, restoring property rights for the Moscow Patriarchate, granting legal status to the Russian language in Ukraine, and placing the obligation to rebuild Donbas infrastructure on Ukraine.
5. Censorship and Ideological Impositions**: The agreement sought to eliminate bans on Soviet and “Nazi” symbols, promoting Russian ideological narratives and undermining Ukrainian sovereignty.
Implications:
Acceptance of these terms would have severely limited Ukraine’s military and political autonomy, recognized Russian territorial claims, and isolated Ukraine from Western support.
Insights into Putin’s Objectives:
The draft indicates Putin’s goal of diminishing Ukraine’s sovereignty, casting it as the aggressor in the conflict to justify Russia’s invasion and demands. Despite some changes in negotiations due to Ukrainian resistance, the core Russian demands regarding sovereignty and military capacity remained intact.
Conclusion:
The draft treaty highlights Russia’s intentions to neutralize Ukraine’s military and political independence, complicating efforts for a sustainable peace that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty as the war progresses.
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