Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a 36-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas is likely an information operation intended to damage Ukraine’s reputation, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its assessment of January 5, 2023.
The order
Putin ordered Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to halt fighting along the entire front from noon on January 6 to midnight on January 7, citing Orthodox Christmas. The order followed a call for a temporary truce by Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church.
A trap for Kyiv
ISW assessed that the ceasefire was likely meant to frame Ukraine as unwilling to pursue peace, falsely present it as suppressing religious groups and position Putin as the true protector of the Christian faith. It could also give Russian troops a pause to rest and regroup. ISW called the narrative that Ukraine persecutes Orthodox believers baseless.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said on December 14 that Russia had no holiday ceasefire planned, and ISW said announcing a truce less than 24 hours before it took effect suggested it was not seriously prepared.
Reactions
Ukrainian and Western officials, including US President Joe Biden, pointed to the hypocrisy of the offer, noting that Russian strikes continued on December 25 and New Year’s Eve. Pro-war Russian milbloggers also reacted with hostility, which ISW said undermined Putin’s claims to be willing to negotiate. ISW concluded that Putin had not abandoned his maximalist aims in Ukraine.
Sources
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