Russian Military Struggles to Form Effective Reserves

As the war in Ukraine continues, the Russian military faces significant challenges in building reserves that can sustain long-term offensive operations. According to Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, Russia is working on forming “strategic reserves” that could be deployed ahead of a possible summer 2024 offensive. However, due to shortages in manpower and equipment, these reserves are unlikely to become fully operational by then.

A key example is Russia’s 44th Army Corps (AC), which is being formed within the Leningrad Military District. Mashovets reports that by the end of 2024, this corps will only have around 55-60% of the required arms and equipment. Similarly, efforts to double production at Russia’s 163rd Armored Repair Plant are delayed and are not expected to meet the planned timeline for summer 2024.

These challenges highlight Russia’s inability to produce weapons and modernize old systems fast enough to meet operational demands. As a result, while Russia can sustain its current offensive operations, it is unlikely to assemble a reserve force capable of large-scale penetrations into Ukrainian defenses.

Manpower losses are another significant issue for Russia, with monthly personnel losses estimated at 25,000 to 30,000 troops. Despite these losses, Russia has managed to replace them through “crypto-mobilization” efforts, which continue to bolster localized offensive efforts.

Despite these difficulties, Russia’s offensive tactics—bolstered by its superior artillery and drone capabilities—are expected to put increased pressure on Ukrainian defenses, especially as delays in Western military aid persist.

Ultimately, while Russia may not form cohesive, large-scale reserves in the short term, its ability to sustain current operations and apply pressure along the Ukrainian frontline will likely continue throughout 2024. However, without significant improvements in equipment production and manpower generation, achieving any operationally significant breakthroughs will remain challenging.