Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine have shrunk to their lowest level in years. Russian forces captured only 14 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in May 2026, according to the Ukrainian open-source mapping project DeepState, the smallest monthly total since October 2023.

“The Russians completely failed May,” DeepState wrote, noting that Russian assaults actually rose by 37.5 percent during the month to more than 7,000 attacks, without producing meaningful gains.

A sharp contrast with last year

The slowdown is stark compared with 2025. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) counted 104 square kilometers taken by Russia between January and May 26, 2026, plus 628 square kilometers of “infiltration zone” that Russian troops have entered but do not control. During the same period last year, Russia seized 1,619 square kilometers. ISW analyst George Barros said Ukraine is now retaking more ground than Russia for the first time since 2023.

Why the offensive has stalled

Analysts point to several factors:

  • Drone kill zones: Ukraine’s expanding drone fleet and its Delta battlefield network, which links drones, sensors and weapons, have pushed lethal zones deep behind the front.
  • Loss of Starlink: Russian units lost access to Starlink terminals over the winter, hurting frontline communications.
  • Strikes on the rear: Ukraine’s “Logistics Lockdown” program, backed by $113 million for mid-range drones, targets Russian positions 100 to 150 kilometers behind the line.

As a result, Russia increasingly relies on small infantry groups trying to infiltrate Ukrainian lines rather than large mechanized assaults.

Pressure points remain

Russia is still attacking along much of the front, mainly in Donetsk Oblast. It has massed more than 100,000 troops west and north of Pokrovsk and is pressing toward Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk, where DeepState says Ukraine’s prospects are “not the best.” Ukrainian counterattacks, meanwhile, have pushed Russian troops out of Stepnohirsk south of Zaporizhzhia and cleared areas around Kupiansk.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told CBS News that Russia began losing momentum in December 2025 and that Ukraine has six to nine months to seize the initiative. “They couldn’t occupy territories more during one month than they lose during the same month,” he said. Analysts caution that front-line figures depend on methodology in a wide gray zone, and that Moscow has adapted before.

Sources

Image note: The featured image was generated by AI based on the content of this article. It is an illustration, not an actual photograph of the people, places or events described.