A Yale-led working paper, Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy, argued that international sanctions and foreign companies' withdrawals were seriously weakening Russia's economy after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The research, led by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian, combined Russian-language and unconventional data sources, consumer indicators, trade-partner statistics, shipping information and a database tracking more than 1,000 companies' responses to the invasion.
The authors argued that Russia's position as a commodities exporter had deteriorated, imports had fallen sharply, and shortages of parts and technology were undermining domestic production. They also identified lost investment, capital and population flight, and constraints on financial markets.
The paper described departing companies as representing around 40% of Russia's GDP. That was an estimate of the companies' economic footprint, not a finding that Russia's measured GDP had fallen by 40%.
These were the authors' analytical conclusions and outlook in a working paper, not an official national-accounts release or a guarantee of a particular future outcome. The July 28, 2022 publication date here follows the editorial schedule; Yale's institutional release provides supporting context.
Read more at SSRN. Supporting source: som.yale.edu.
