Ukraine’s goal of liberating Crimea could provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin to use a nuclear weapon, while failure to resolve the status of the peninsula could lead to a decade-long conflict, The Washington Post reported on December 11, 2022.
Central to Putin’s legacy
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted that the war can end only with the liberation of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Putin, meanwhile, regards the peninsula as central to his legacy and has repeatedly said that any Ukrainian move to retake it would cross a “red line,” according to the report.
Western fears
Western officials fear that Putin could respond more aggressively, possibly with nuclear weapons, if Ukraine pushes to retake the peninsula, the Post reported. Some Western officials have suggested that a deal leaving Crimea under Russian control could bring the war to a negotiated end, an idea Ukraine rejects as dangerously naive.
A frozen conflict
The competing claims show the deep-rooted nature of the conflict, and resolving the dispute is likely to require further bloodshed, according to the analysis. If neither side gives way on Crimea, the war could turn into a confrontation lasting a decade or more, comparable to conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh or Kurdistan, Ukrainian News reported, citing the article.
Ukraine liberated Kherson city in November, bringing Ukrainian forces closer to the peninsula.
Sources
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