The Kremlin likely has not abandoned its maximalist objectives in Ukraine, despite Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s first acknowledgement that Moscow’s current territorial goal is to fully seize four partially occupied Ukrainian oblasts, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its assessment of December 8, 2022.
Four oblasts
Peskov said there was “still a lot of work to be done” to occupy Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, which Russia claimed to annex in September. He said there was no talk of annexing territory Russia does not currently partially occupy.
No change in aims
ISW assessed that Peskov’s comments did not represent a change in Russian war aims. Peskov reiterated the goals of “demilitarisation” and “denazification” of Ukraine, which ISW interprets as regime change and the reduction of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
The think tank said President Vladimir Putin’s references to imperial history and his description of Russia as the only guarantor of Ukrainian sovereignty suggested preparations for a protracted war. It assessed that the Kremlin’s inconsistent messaging was an information operation aimed at pushing Kyiv towards negotiations and preemptive concessions.
Other developments
ISW also noted that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the risk of Russian nuclear escalation was currently low, and that US Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley said fighting could intensify over the winter.
Sources
Image note: The featured image was generated by AI based on the content of this article. It is an illustration, not an actual photograph of the people, places or events described.
