Recent developments indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin has directed the Russian military to seize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 2023. This aligns with the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) assessment of a likely Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence official Andriy Chernyak revealed that Russian forces are redeploying additional assault groups and military equipment to unspecified areas, likely within Luhansk Oblast.

In a bid to enhance operational security, Russian authorities have blocked internet cell service in occupied Luhansk Oblast. This move aims to conceal new Russian force deployments. The suspension of mobile internet, effective from February 11, was ordered by the Russian Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media. Ukrainian citizens have been using mobile phones to gather intelligence on Russian forces, which has prompted this security measure.

Despite these efforts, ISW has not observed evidence of restored Russian combat power sufficient to overcome Ukrainian forces and capture significant territory in Donetsk Oblast. A major Russian offensive before April 2023 is likely to face challenges, particularly during the spring rain season, potentially allowing Ukrainian forces to capitalize on these conditions for a counteroffensive.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov supports ISW’s assessment, suggesting a significant mobilization of Russian personnel. Reznikov estimates that the number of mobilized Russian soldiers exceeds the Kremlin’s official figure, indicating a potential buildup for an imminent offensive. However, ISW has not confirmed the extent of additional mobilized forces.

Russian officials continue to frame the conflict as an existential threat, aiming to sustain domestic support for prolonged military operations. President Putin has drawn historical parallels to the Battle of Stalingrad, portraying the conflict as a fight against modern Nazism. However, these narratives have not effectively motivated Russian citizens to support the war, as evidenced by a surge in passport applications, indicating a desire to leave the country.

In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces are reportedly preparing for offensive actions in the Svatove area, with increased shelling observed. Ukrainian forces have repelled multiple Russian assaults near Kreminna, suggesting an intensified effort by Russian forces. The situation remains dynamic, with ongoing assessments of Russian strategic intentions in the region.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2023 | ISW