Russian authorities have completed their controversial referenda in the occupied regions of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk, claiming overwhelming support for annexation. These referenda, widely regarded as fraudulent, reported approval ratings between 87% and 99%, despite widespread coercion of Ukrainian civilians to vote in favor of joining Russia. This move sets the stage for Russian President Vladimir Putin to announce the annexation of these territories, potentially as early as September 30, during an address to Russia’s parliament.

Putin’s strategy mirrors the 2014 annexation of Crimea, involving a sham referendum followed by a swift formalization of the annexation. Leaders of the Russian-backed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics have already expressed intentions to travel to Moscow to finalize the annexation agreements. This development is anticipated to facilitate the forced conscription of Ukrainian civilians into the Russian military as part of the autumn conscription cycle.

Meanwhile, Russian military operations are reportedly deploying newly-mobilized troops to the frontlines in Kherson and Kharkiv without adequate training. Reports indicate that these troops, drawn from the Western Military District, are being rushed into combat situations, undermining their effectiveness. Ukrainian forces continue to make strategic advances, particularly in Eastern Ukraine, where they have liberated key areas such as Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi and are consolidating positions along the Oskil River.

Ukrainian counteroffensives are also progressing northwest of Lyman, with significant territorial gains reported. Ukrainian forces have been successful in disrupting Russian supply lines and targeting key military infrastructure, including ammunition depots and transport routes. In Southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are intensifying their efforts to strike Russian positions and equipment, with notable successes in Kherson Oblast.

Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian military officials maintain operational silence regarding specific tactical movements, focusing instead on broader strategic objectives. The Ukrainian military’s interdiction campaign aims to weaken Russian forces’ logistical capabilities, particularly in Zaporizhia and Kherson, where Ukrainian strikes have reportedly destroyed significant Russian military assets.

As the conflict continues, both sides are leveraging various military strategies and resources to gain an advantage. The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for regional stability and international relations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27, 2022 | ISW