Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its assessment of December 7, 2022.
“A lengthy process”
At a meeting with his Presidential Human Rights Council, Putin described the “special military operation” as a “lengthy process.” ISW said his remarks indicated that territorial gains were a central objective of the war.
Peter the Great
Putin compared himself favourably to Peter the Great, citing Russian control of the Sea of Azov as a significant result. ISW assessed this as a sign of maximalist, imperial aims and said the Kremlin was preparing the Russian public for a drawn-out fight to seize more Ukrainian territory, messaging it described as incompatible with any genuine interest in a ceasefire or negotiations.
Nuclear and mobilisation claims
Putin repeated that Russia would not use nuclear weapons first and was not “crazy.” ISW assessed such rhetoric as information operations rather than an indication of battlefield intent. Putin also said further mobilisation “does not make sense” for now, although independent Russian media reported that mobilisation would continue, and claimed that supply problems had been solved, which Russian milbloggers disputed.
Winter pause
ISW also noted NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s warning that Russia might seek a winter pause to regroup before a spring offensive, which ISW said would benefit Russia.
Sources
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