Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted march on Moscow may have been based on a miscalculation, the intelligence centre of the Estonian Defence Forces said in an operational update reported on June 30, 2023.
Support that never came
According to the assessment, reported by Postimees and European Pravda, Prigozhin probably expected the support of some senior military commanders and assumed that units of the regular Russian army would join his march. No regular units defected.
Wagner met little serious resistance as it advanced from Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow, but “no one sided with the coup plotters,” the assessment said. As Moscow prepared its defences and bridges over the Oka River were blocked, Prigozhin appears to have realised his mistake and looked for a way out, halting his forces about 200 km from the capital.
Lukashenko’s role
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko reportedly offered Prigozhin security guarantees he found acceptable. Estonian intelligence said Lukashenko may have acted only as a mediator, but his long friendship with Prigozhin mattered, and he had his own interest in ending the crisis because his regime’s stability depends on Russia.
What comes next
Prigozhin has travelled to Belarus, while Wagner fighters remain at bases in occupied Luhansk Oblast, and some may move to Belarus, the assessment said. Russia is likely to end its financial and other support for Wagner and has offered fighters places in the regular armed forces. Moscow may also crack down on the mutineers and tighten control over its military and security services.
In the near term, the events “will not have a significant impact on the course of the war in Ukraine,” Estonian intelligence concluded.
Sources
Image note: The featured image was generated by AI based on the content of this article. It is an illustration, not an actual photograph of the people, places or events described.
